US stocks fell as the rally that led them to their best month since 2020 proved unsustainable as central banks repeated that higher interest rates were necessary to control inflation despite rising recession risks.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 opened lower on the best month for stocks since the year of the coronavirus year. US Treasury yields steadied with the10-year rate at 2.63%, well down from June's peak near 3.50%. The dollar dropped ahead of data that is expected to show a slowdown in US manufacturing for July.
Geopolitical tensions also kept markets on edge, with China again warning that its military would take action if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a landmark visit to Taiwan.
European stock indexes also started the week lower:
Traders speculate that the Federal Reserve will soften its anti-inflationary campaign and opt for a slower rate hike after data showed the US economy had contracted in the second quarter. While that sentiment led to a market reversal in July after historic losses in the first half of the year, some Fed officials downplayed recession risks during the weekend and reinforced the message that higher rates were necessary to relieve price pressures.
Despite a 12.6% advance from a low on June 16, the S&P 500 could face an ugly stretch. Wall Street lore considers October is the most dangerous month for the stock market because of crashes in 1929, 1987, and 2008. But August and September are actually worse, with the S&P 500 averaging declines of 0.6% and 0.7% respectively, over the past 25 years.
While more than half of the S&P 500 companies that reported earnings so far have beat analysts' estimates, the rate of earnings beats is still trailing the average pace set in the last five quarters. And companies are worried about the economy, with executives and analysts on track to use phrases related to an economic slowdown in the first quarter.
The Moscow Exchange Russia Index is testing a technical resistance level near 2,200 and the bears are currently dominant:
What to watch this week:
- Airbnb, Alibaba and BP are among earnings reports;
- US construction spending, ISM manufacturing, Monday;
- Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, Tuesday;
- US JOLTS job openings, Tuesday;
- Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard due to speak at separate events, Tuesday;
- OPEC + meeting on output, Wednesday;
- US factory orders, durable goods, ISM services, Wednesday;
- BOE rate decision, Thursday;
- US initial jobless claims, trade, Thursday;
- Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester due to speak Thursday;
- US employment report for July, Friday.
Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA.
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