- Correct to the 38.2% of the move down from the August high
In the morning forex technical video, I spoke to the AUDUSD holding key support near the 61.8% of the move up from the July 14 low as well as a swing area around that retracement level near 0.68548. To watch that video CLICK HERE. The AUDUSD part starts at 7:13.
As mentioned in that video there was reason to buy the pair against support, but there needed to be more upside momentum through the falling 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 0.6905), the 50% (at 0.69085 currently) and a swing area (see yellow area).
The weaker US data was a catalyst for that break. The price ran higher.
Looking at the hourly chart, the pair's run took the AUDUSD price ultimately to the 38.2% of the move down from the August high at 0.6962 and sellers leaned. Admittedly, that MAY be a tough nut to crack It could be it for the upside. Having said that, the dip off the 38.2% and high for the day has been relatively modest.
Looking at the 5-minute chart below, the 38.2% of the trend move higher today comes in at 0.69254. The current price remains comfortably above that level along with the 50% of the same trend move higher at 0.69138. Intraday, it would take a move below those levels to fully spoil the short term run higher today for traders looking for more upside corrective price action. It would also give the sellers against the 38.2% on the hourly chart more confidence that the high is in place.
We started the US session with a possible low for the move (with work to do). Now after the run higher into the retracement resistance, we may have hit a ceiling too. The intraday swings will now help define what may be the next move. Time will tell but the battle is on.
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