Equity markets have kicked off H2 on the front foot with the S&P 500 on course to record a 3% weekly gain, at the time of writing. Arguably a rather sanguine affair for equities given the rather chaotic price action in FX with Euro heading to parity and oil prices briefly breaking below $100/bbl. That said, better than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP data has done enough to ease the recent recession fear trade and thus keep equities underperformed. Looking ahead, the big data to watch next week is the latest US CPI print. A reminder that the S&P 500 has yet to rise above the pre-CPI level at 4014. However, a miss on the downside for CPI next week and we likely see a return to 4000. 
Next week, gas flows from Russia to Germany via the Nord Stream pipeline will stop completely for a planned 10-day annual maintenance. However, in light of the current backdrop and with gas flows already falling to 40% capacity, the risk is whether Russia turns back the taps on after the maintenance period. If not, Germany would have to resort to rationing remaining gas supplies an outcome that will weigh heavily on European assets, including the DAX. As such, while key US data will be in focus, the energy situation is perhaps biggest factor at play for markets, even more so now that Germany has reported its first trade deficit since 1991.
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