On the 4-hour TF, the current picture of bitcoin is also very eloquent and does not raise any questions. There is a clear descending channel that has been maintained for a long time. The cryptocurrency is not even trying to gain a foothold above it, but at the moment, it is at its lower limit. Thus, in the near future, bitcoin may adjust to the level of $ 24,350, and a rebound from this level may indicate the beginning of a new fall.
Although we continue to believe in the further fall of the first cryptocurrency in the world, it should be noted: that this does not mean that bitcoin will lose another $ 5-10 thousand of value in the next couple of weeks and, thus, will fulfill the goals we have set. Bitcoin can easily and simply consolidate for a month or two or three before starting a new round of decline. However, the absence of a fall in the coming months will not mean that the downward trend is over. This point should be clearly understood. Thus, now it is possible to prepare for the fact that bitcoin will be adjusted, as well as the entire cryptocurrency market, and it is impossible to predict a new round of decline in time. But we would not risk considering purchases now. Moreover, there is not a single technical signal.
As for the fundamental background, everything is so simple here now that there is nothing even to discuss every day. All factors remain against not only cryptocurrencies but also all risky assets. Since the rates are rising, the QT programs will soon work, and the yield of government bonds and bank deposits is growing. And since they are the safest assets, the demand for them is also growing. Naturally, there is a flow of capital from falling markets to growing ones. If the stock market does not cause strong concerns yet, since real assets, business, and production are behind any shares, then the cryptocurrency, which has already lost 2/3, if not more, can theoretically fall to zero. Therefore, while the Fed will continue to raise the rate and the QT program will work, we would not count on the strong growth of bitcoin. And it doesn't even matter here that the current levels make mining unprofitable, that most crypto investors are now at a loss. All this is not a reason for the growth of the "bitcoin", because investors like to buy growing assets or those that have the growth potential. And now bitcoin has neither the first nor the second.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the quotes of the "bitcoin" fell below the level of $ 24,350. It was not possible to gain a foothold above the descending channel, so now the target remains at the level of $ 12,426. It is not recommended to consider buying bitcoin now, in principle, you need to wait for at least a consolidation above the channel. But since the trend is now "frankly bearish", we would not risk buying. Of course, there will come a time when the price will be very attractive, but we want to remind you that the last "bullish" trend did not start in the blue, but only after the Central Bank began to soften monetary policy.
Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA.
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